Foreign Portfolio Investors' (FPIs) selling spree continues as they pulled out over Rs 3,400 crore from the Indian equity markets in the first three trading sessions of November on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 47,148 crore in the Indian equities in June, making it the highest inflow in 10 months, enthused by the country's steadily improving macroeconomic fundamentals. However, inflows in July may be subdued as FPIs might adopt cautious stance due to the recent comments from the US Federal Reserve, Mayank Mehraa, Smallcase manager and principal partner at financial consultancy Craving Alpha, said. Besides, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said FPIs are likely to turn a bit cautious going forward as valuations in the country are rich from a short-term perspective.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pumped in Rs 43,838 crore in Indian equities in May, the highest level in nine months, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, and reasonable valuations. FPIs continued the buying stance in June too, and invested Rs 6,490 crore in just two trading sessions of the month, data with the repositories showed. VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said that inflow by FPIs will continue in the current month since the latest GDP data and high-frequency indicators reflect a robust economy gaining further strength.
In a dazzling resurgence, foreign investors have graced the Indian equity markets with an influx of nearly Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2023, fuelled by optimism over the country's resilient economic fundamentals amid shadows of a gloomy global scenario. Experts believe that the positive trend may continue in 2024. This follows Indian equities witnessing the worst-ever net outflow of Rs 1.21 lakh crore by FPIs in 2022 on aggressive rate hikes by the central banks globally after net inflows for three consecutive years.
Stock selection in India remain relatively low-beta given the lack of any conviction here on any near-term upturn in the investment cycle
'If I had to highlight one area that will do well, it is the financial assets -- that is the private sector banks, insurance and mutual funds.'
High networth individuals selling stocks to buy real estate is among the key risks for the Indian markets.
In a memorable year for the equity market, Dalal Street investors added a whopping Rs 81.90 lakh crore to their wealth in 2023 as a raft of positive factors powered a stellar rally in stocks. Experts said India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political stability owing to the BJP's success in recent elections in three significant states, optimistic corporate earnings outlook, signals from the US Federal Reserve about three prospective rate cuts next year and heavy retail investors participation played a major role in fuelling the stock market rally in 2023. In the year 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent.
Thus far in 2017-18, FIIs and MFs have invested Rs 198.91 billion and Rs 1,119.49 billion in the Indian equity markets. Of this, around Rs 152.46 billion has come in January alone.
'Focus on 19,400/64,900 as the key resistance levels for the Nifty/Sensex.'
International investors are encouraged by the Indian government's recent economic policy announcements, including that on opening the retail sector to foreign direct investment (FDI). However, they would track how these measures were implemented, said speakers at the annual India Investment Forum in New York.
Analysts expect the central bank to remain watchful of inflation.
Emerging markets such as India have always run higher inflation rates than developed economies such as the US and countries of Western Europe. But for the first time in the past 30 years, the US reported a higher consumer price inflation (CPI) rate than India in five consecutive months. The US reported a CPI rate of 7.5 per cent in January 2022 against 6.01 per cent in India and analysts expect the trend to continue for at least a few months more
The 'Indian story' will be badly damaged if the Modi government is not re-elected, argues investment banker Christopher Wood.
Waves of foreign portfolio investments worth over Rs 51,000 crore splashed into the Indian market in 2021 as overseas investors turned net buyers of domestic securities for the third straight year while excess global liquidity and other factors steered the ebb and flow of their investing ways. With the global financial system still flush with liquidity, emerging market assets, especially equities, might well remain the preferred investment avenue for many more months to come, experts opined. As the equities sizzled during most of 2021, that also saw economy slowly coming back into the recovery path, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turned net buyers but their investment is much less compared to net inflows of Rs 1.03 lakh crore in 2020.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulled out as much as Rs 17,537 crore from the Indian markets in just three trading sessions of March as investors' sentiment got dented by the uncertainty triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising crude oil prices. As per depositories data, they pulled out Rs 14,721 crore from equities, Rs 2,808 crore from debt segment and Rs 9 crore from hybrid instruments between March 2-4. This took the total net outflow to Rs 17,537 crore.
With GST, demonetisaton and the banking sector reset, investment banker Christopher Wood expects PM to focus on generating jobs ahead of the 2019 election.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pulled out Rs 17,696 crore from the Indian markets in December so far amid uncertainty due to a new coronavirus strain, Omicron, and expectations of faster tapering by the US Federal Reserve. According to the depositories data, FPIs took out Rs 13,470 crore from equities, Rs 4,066 crore from the debt segment and Rs 160 crore from hybrid instruments between December 1-17. In November, FPIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 2,521 crore in Indian markets.
The market's sensitivity to the US Fed's balance sheet changes makes it vulnerable to the possible tapering of the bond buying programme and the resulting stagnation or even shrinkage in the balance sheet.
So, what does 2016 have in store for the Indian markets? Will they be able to take a giant leap forward in the leap year, and what are the key risks?
Thirteen companies have joined the Rs 1-trillion-plus market capitalisation club this year, so far. This even as the benchmark Sensex has gained less than 3 per cent on a year-to-date basis, underscoring the bullish undercurrent in the broader market. The trend shows a harsh second wave of Covid-19, subsequent lockdowns, and hit to the economic activity has made little dent into India Inc or shareholders' wealth. At the start of the year, there were 29 companies with a market value of more than Rs 1 trillion.
'Experts are not ruling out further pain as global factors cannot insulate India from the aftermath.'
India is still the best story in major emerging markets from a 5-year perspective.
Global events will continue to be in the limelight, besides domestic policy.
Equities went into a tailspin on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank surprised the market with a mid-cycle rate hike in a bid to tame soaring inflation.
Benchmark indices plunge 4.7% in the first full week of 2016.
Global brokerage firm CLSA is positive on India's growth stroy.
They have put in $14 billion so far in 2014 but this could get slower if the US Fed raises rates; however, there are expectations on compensatory flows.
A sharp sell-off in the Indian equities markets after a spike in crude oil prices should not be surprising. Historically there is a negative correlation between stock valuations in India and the price of Brent crude oil, which is the benchmark for the Indian crude oil basket. Between 2011 and 2014, crude oil traded above $100 a barrel for an extended period, the Sensex-trailing price/earnings (P/E) was 18X, on average, during the period, nearly 22 per cent lower than the current index P/E of 23X.
Experts believe the market will fall between 1 and 3%.
Experts say the BSE Sensex could rise to around 32,000 in a year.
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits US, fund managers from India and abroad expect improving sentiments and impressive returns from Indian markets to help attract billions of dollars flowing into the country's asset management industry.
It would be beneficial for the economy to hold on to high interest rates till inflation numbers are under control.
Accommodative monetary policy has driven a bull market in stocks in recent years, but the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates early next year and the U.S. Federal Reserve not long after, tempering future gains.
Demonetisation will wipe out the likely benefits of a good monsoon this year, says Christopher Wood of CLSA.
'All they need is proper leadership.'
'While GST and demonetisation are likely to cause disruption for longer than the market currently expects, they can have meaningful positive impact over the medium-term.'
A family man with two sons, who made it a point to attend all weddings and occasions in the community, Siddhartha is known by everyone as the quintessential 'nice guy' CEO -- never yelling, raising his voice or screaming at his employees, says Pavan Lall.
Investors may increase exposure to mid and small-cap stocks as their risk-reward profile is more attractive currently, suggest Nitin Singh and Vinay Joseph.
A day after global brokerage firm Macquarie painted a rosy picture of the Indian economy and raised its target level for the stock indices for the next 12 months, Goldman Sachs said India is set to overtake China and become the fastest-growing emerging market during 2016-18.
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